
Eli Lilly LLY lowers 2024 sales forecast for weight loss drugs

The Eli Lilly & Co. logo at the company's Digital Health Innovation Hub in Singapore, on Thursday, November 14, 2024.
Ore Huiying | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Eli Lilly on Tuesday lowered its sales forecast because demand for its weight-loss and diabetes drugs would not meet its lofty expectations.
Shares of the drugmaker closed more than 6% lower on Tuesday.
Eli Lilly said it now expects full-year 2024 sales of about $45 billion. That's less than the $45.4 billion to $46 billion the company expected in October. The new outlook would still represent a 32% year-over-year jump in sales.
Struggling to meet rising demand for its diabetes drug Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound, Eli Lilly is investing billions to expand its production capacity for the company's booming so-called incretin drugs. The efforts appear to be paying off: The Food and Drug Administration reaffirmed its decision in December to declare an end to the U.S. shortage of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both drugs.
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said the company is “getting tons of deals online” and “that kind of growth is likely to continue.”
He also noted that the company will expand its production capacity and expects to produce at least 60% more salable doses of its incretin drugs in the first half of the year than in the same period in 2024.
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For the fourth quarter, Eli Lilly expects sales of $13.5 billion. The total includes approximately $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound.
Wall Street had expected fourth-quarter and full-year revenue of $13.94 billion and $45.49 billion, respectively, according to analysts surveyed by LSEG.
The outlook cut comes as Eli Lilly competes with it Novo Nordisk and other, smaller competitors for share in the exploding market for weight-loss and diabetes drugs. Eli Lilly is developing an obesity pill that would be more convenient for patients and easier to produce, and Ricks expects it to be approved as soon as early next year.
“While the U.S. incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous forecasts had expected an even faster acceleration in growth for the quarter. This contributed in addition to lower-than-expected year-end channel inventory levels.” “Our Q4 results,” Ricks said in a statement.
The drugmaker also said it expects revenue of $58 billion to $61 billion in fiscal 2025.
Eli Lilly is expected to report full quarterly results on February 6th.