One in three Manhattan condo owners lost money when selling last year

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More than a third of condos sold in Manhattan last year sold at a loss, even though the higher end of the market performed better, according to a new report.

Despite the constant headlines about stunning sales and rising prices in Manhattan real estate, the average price per square foot for Manhattan condos is essentially unchanged from a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. According to the report, one in three condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss. When inflation, transaction costs and renovations are taken into account, condo sellers’ share of losses is likely to be even higher, according to real estate analysts.

Although the data did not take co-ops into account, analysts say co-op prices have generally performed the same or slightly worse than condos.

“Over the last decade, Manhattan has essentially moved sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the valuation and real estate research firm.

Long-term price weakness in Manhattan stands in stark contrast to much of the country, where real estate prices have risen significantly since the pandemic, creating a widespread affordability crisis. According to Redfin, only 2% of home sellers nationwide who purchased homes before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss.

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Manhattan remains one of the most expensive markets in the country, particularly in terms of space per square meter. According to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman, the average price for Manhattan sales in the third quarter was $1.2 million, while the average is just under $2 million. But in the longer term, an analysis of resales shows that the timing of the purchase in Manhattan is usually more important than the location.

Condominium owners who purchased before 2010 fared best. According to the Brown Harris report, average gains for those in this cohort who sold in the past year or so ranged from 29% to 45%. After the financial crisis, prices began to rise and peaked in 2016. This means that for those who bought between 2011 and 2015, sales gains last year were modest, around 11%.

The biggest losers were those who bought after 2016. Half of buyers who purchased between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss during the period studied. For those who bought between 2021 and 2024, gains were small – although some buyers who did business during the peak of the Covid downturn in late 2020 and early 2021 may have fared better.

Adding additional buying, selling and ownership costs would magnify the losses. According to brokers, transaction costs in Manhattan can range from 6 to 10%. Renovations and improvements do not count towards losses, nor do maintenance fees or taxes. Adjusted for inflation, losses would also increase and returns would decrease.

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, said inflation has risen 36% in the last decade.

“So if I had invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 (near the peak) and sold it in August 2025 at the same nominal price, i.e. a 0% nominal return, I would have lost 36% in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising because many people see real estate as a good hedge against inflation.”

He noted that the Case-Shiller national housing price index rose 89% in the ten years between September 2015 and August 2025, “much better than NYC and also well above the 36% inflation rate.”

The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in condo prices are as varied as they are controversial. A 2018 cap on state and local tax deductions put pressure on prices and demand, as did a 2019 rental law. The migration of some higher earners to Florida during the coronavirus crisis also added to real estate fears, even as population and demand recovered quickly.

The only exception to this trend was the top of the market. Those who bought and sold homes for $10 million or more made double-digit profits, regardless of when they originally purchased.

Brokers and analysts say increasing wealth concentration at the top, rising stock markets and relentless demand from those less affected by economic and market cycles have led to continued gains in the luxury market.

“The high end has performed better over the decade, particularly in, say, the top 4% of the market,” Miller said. “The reason is Wall Street and the financial markets. And the ability to buy in cash regardless of interest rates.”

Miller said two-thirds of home sales in the third quarter were conducted in cash, well above the historical average of about 53% and showing the Manhattan market’s continued reliance on wealthy buyers who don’t need mortgages.

In a market characterized by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current upswing represents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers.

“I am optimistic and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate,” said Jared Antin, managing director of Brown Harris Stevens and co-author of the report. “While some people may have lost money on the deals [over the decade]the losses were negligible. It illustrates the blue-chip nature of the Manhattan market. Does everyone want to make money with their property? Naturally. But this market is incredibly stable.”

Sellers who bought during the decline in 2020 and early 2021 could also make profits when they start selling, Antin said.

But with average prices hovering near all-time highs and the upcoming mayoral election uncertain, many potential buyers are choosing to stay on the sidelines and rent, even if they can afford to buy. According to a report from RentCafe, the number of New York City households earning more than $1 million per year and renting more than doubled between 2019 and 2023 to 5,661.

Additionally, signed contracts for luxury apartments priced at $4 million or more fell 39% in September after rising in August and July, according to Olshan Realty. Brokers blame a rapid decline in inventory and a lack of new supply from condo projects rather than a drop in demand or fears that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, would become the next mayor of New York City.

“There is certainly downside risk to policy,” Miller said. “But as we have seen in the past, these fears are usually exaggerated.”