Airlines say air traffic will reach record levels on Thanksgiving
A traveler checks flight information at LAX as the shutdown passes the one-month mark and essential workers remain unpaid on November 5, 2025 in Los Angeles, California.
Grace Hie Yoon | Anadolu | Getty Images
U.S. airlines are predicting another record Thanksgiving travel season and are optimistic now that the travel-related government shutdown ends.
Airlines will carry more than 31 million people between Friday, Nov. 21, and Monday, Dec. 1, Airlines for America, a lobbying group representing the largest U.S. airlines, predicted Thursday. The busiest days are expected to be the Sunday after Thanksgiving, with about 3.4 million people flying, followed by the Monday after Thanksgiving with about 3.1 passengers.
Airline executives expressed relief after the longest-ever government shutdown ended Nov. 12. The shortage of air traffic controllers, who had to work without their regular pay, caused delayed and canceled flights, disrupting the travel plans of around 6 million people, A4A said.
The industry is now pushing lawmakers to pass legislation to ensure air traffic controllers are paid in the event of another shutdown. Executives have complained in recent weeks that air travel is becoming a political bargaining tool. The latest bill only funds the government through January, so industry officials hope to avoid a repeat of the shutdown just before the start of the winter break and spring break seasons.
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Bank of America estimates that major network airlines could see a $150 million to $200 million decline in operating profits due to the closure, and smaller airlines would see a $100 million impact from the closure. However, airlines have not yet released revised estimates.
Some travelers appeared to wait until the end of the lockdown to book their trip.
United Airlines said bookings were up 16% between November 15 and 16 compared to the previous weekend, when air travel disruption increased.
The airline also said bookings for international travel hit a record over the holiday season, rising 10% year-on-year, with Cancun, Mexico, and major European hubs London and Frankfurt, Germany, among the top destinations.
Overall, United forecasts it will fly 6.6 million passengers between Nov. 20 and Dec. 2, up more than 4% from a year ago.
According to aviation data firm Cirium, international capacity at the largest U.S. airlines rose about 5% between Nov. 26 and Nov. 30 compared to the same period last year, while domestic capacity was about 2% higher.
American Airlines said it plans to operate 80,759 flights from November 20 to December 2, more than any other airline.
“The Thanksgiving holiday is one of the closest and most important for our customers – the stakes are high and the American team is ready to deliver,” American Chief Operating Officer David Seymour said in a press release.
However, not all airlines have improved their flight schedules. Budget carrier Spirit Airlines, in its second bankruptcy in less than a year, has cut capacity and furloughed hundreds of pilots to cut costs as it tries to find firmer financial footing.
Data from Cirium shows Spirit’s domestic flight capacity fell nearly 40% compared to last year.
